Eurovision 2026 Final Tonight in Vienna: Finland Favourite as Bookmakers and Prediction Markets Agree

The Eurovision Song Contest 2026 Grand Final takes place tonight at the Wiener Stadthalle in Vienna — and bookmakers and prediction markets are strikingly aligned: Finland is expected to win.

Finland Dominates Every Market

Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen represent Finland with their entry “Liekinheitin”. Bet365 price them at 4/5 (implied probability: ~41-45%), a position of dominance rarely seen at this stage of the contest.

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Prediction Markets: Even More Bullish on Finland

On Polymarket — the largest prediction market for the event with $173 million in trading volume — Finland is priced at approximately 49%. Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange, has Finland at 53%.

The Jury vs. Televote Split

Polymarket sub-markets tell a fascinating story: Australia's Delta Goodrem with “Eclipse” is favoured to win the jury vote at 53.5%, while Israel's Noam Bettan with “Michelle” leads the televote market at 51%. Finland winning overall despite neither leading either component reflects the market's belief that Finland scores strongly across both voting streams.

UK's Chances: Long Odds

Look Mum No Computer — real name Sam Battle — represents the United Kingdom with the experimental electronic track “Eins, Zwei, Drei”, sung largely in German. Bookmakers price the UK entry at 125/1 to 250/1. William Hill noted it has been “another tough week in the betting” for UK fans.

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The Favourites at a Glance

• Finland: Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin” (4/5)
• Australia: Delta Goodrem – “Eclipse” (4/1)
• Greece: Akylas – “Ferto” (9/1)
• Israel: Noam Bettan – “Michelle” (10/1)
• Romania: Alexandra Capitanescu – “Choke Me” (12/1)
• Denmark: Soren Torpegaard – “For vi gar hjem” (18/1)

The Eurovision 2026 Grand Final begins tonight at 21:00 CET, live on BBC One, RTÉ One (Ireland), and broadcasters across Europe and beyond.